Munich Personal Repec Archive

Displaying 1-40 of 1998 results

  • White Papers // Jul 2011

    Trade Integration,Restructuring And Global Imbalances-A Tale Of Two Countries

    China is widely seen as one of the sources of global macroeconomic imbalances. Its persistent current account surplus and capital exports to the United States are even cited as one of the causes of the global financial crisis. The most common explanation traces China's current account surplus to a mismatch...

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  • White Papers // Jul 2011

    A Non-Linear Coopetitive Game For Global Green Economy

    The paper aims at providing a non-linear Game Theory model of coopetition which addresses the problem of the global Green Economy. The Green Economy is a theoretical model of economic development that suggests economic, technical and legislative solutions to reduce the consumption of energy, of natural resources and environmental damage...

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  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    Trade Collapse, Trade Relapse And Global Production Networks: Supply Chains In The Great Recession (Revised)

    The nature of international trade and the very nature of globalization have changed dramatically in recent years, with the emergence of new global players and a radically different competitive landscape. This new landscape emerged during the late 1980s and early 1990s, when the Berlin Wall fall brought down the barriers...

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  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    Analysis of WIMAX/BWA Licensing in India: A Real Option Approach

    Indian Internet and broadband market has experienced very slow growth and limited penetration till now. The introduction of Broadband Wireless Access (BWA) is expected to aid in increasing the penetration of internet and broadband in India. The paper sheds light on the guidelines and procedure used in 4G/BWA spectrum auction...

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  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    The Rise of Emerging Markets' Financial Market Architecture: Constituting New Roles in the Global Financial Governance

    This paper analyses the impact of the global financial crisis on Brazil, India and South Africa whose financial markets have shown strong resilience to the global financial turmoil. The paper shows, that in contrast to advanced countries in these emerging market economies there is contagion from the real sector through...

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  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    Causality Between FDI And Financial Market Development: Evidence From Emerging Markets

    This paper studies the causal relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Financial Market Development (FMD) using panel data from emerging markets. Most studies of the relationship between FDI and FMD have focused on the role of FMD in the link between FDI and economic growth, with no deep understanding...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Beyond The Global Financial Crisis: Central Banking In A New Global Financial System

    Since the outbreak of the global crisis in mid 2007, there has been an extensive discussion on root causes. Some blame the greed and corruption of financial actors. Others put the blame on central bankers for easy money or regulators who remained idle as too much risks accumulated in financial...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Industrialization And Technological Progress With Many Countries Under A Non-homothetic Preference

    This paper examines industrialization in each country by using a model with a continuum of countries. The model is mainly based on Yanagawa's (1996) model. However, unlike Yanagawa's model, the model adopts the Stone-Geary utility function of a non-homothetic preference. The main results are as follows. First, the authors find...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Evaluating Density Forecasts: A Comment

    This is a comment on Mitchell and Wallis (2011) which in turn is a critical reaction to Gneiting et al. (2007). The comment discusses the notion of forecast calibration, the advantage of using scoring rules, the "Sharpness" principle and a general approach to testing calibration. The aim is to show...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    A Rational Road To Effectiveness Attainment

    Operational effectiveness goes beyond efficiency while it incorporates exogenous variables, non-controllable by the service units. Effectiveness is a fundamental driver for the success of an operational unit within a competitive environment. In this paper, the authors seek to identify the active units that meet both the high or technical efficiency...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Keynes's Missing Axioms

    Between Keynes's verbalized theory and its formal basis persists a lacuna. The conceptual groundwork is too small and not general. The quest for a comprehensive formal basis is guided by the question: what is the minimum set of foundational propositions for a consistent reconstruction of the money economy? The authors...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    What Is Wrong With Heterodox Economics? Kalecki?s Profit Theory As An Example

    Kalecki's profit theory has always been popular among heterodox economist as an alternative approach to solve the paradox of monetary profits. In the present paper his formula 'The workers spend what they get, the capitalists get what they spend' is scrutinized for its logical and factual implications. The analysis shows...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Schumpeter And The Essence Of Profit

    Schumpeter had a clear vision of the developing economy, but he did not formalize it. The quest for a germane formal basis is in the following guided by the general question: what is the minimum set of foundational propositions for a consistent reconstruction of the evolving money economy? The authors...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    The 2011 Japanese Earthquake, Tsunami And Nuclear Crisis: Evidence Of Contagion From International Financial Markets

    Natural disasters may inflict significant damage upon international financial markets. Using 33 international stock indexes and exchange rates, this paper examines if any contagion occurred across financial markets after the March 11, 2011 Japanese earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis. The results have two paramount implications. Firstly, the authors have confirmed...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Distribution, 'Financialisation' And The Financial And Economic Crisis - Implications For Post-Crisis Economic Policies

    The severity of the financial and economic crisis which started in 2007 cannot be understood without examining the medium-to long-run developments in the world economy since the early 1980s. The following long-run causes for the crisis can be identified: inefficient regulation of financial markets, increasing inequality in the distribution of...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Beginning, Crises, And End Of The Money Economy In Three Consistent Steps

    A crisis is but a crisis when the long run outlook is definitively positive. Then a lower turning point must exist. This implicates a vision or, in the ideal case, a formalized theory of the money economy's possible end states. This theory has to provide an endogenous explanation of end...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Embodied Human Capital Unemployment

    Adam Smith (1776) devoted the first three chapters to the division of labor in his Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. This process, carried far enough, eventually results in a divergence between the distributions of supplies and demands of such horizontally-differentiated distinct types of human...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Information Gathering, Innovation And Growth

    In this paper the authors study the economic implications of IPR protection on corporate intelligence, R&D investment and economic growth. To accomplish this objective, they introduce trade secret and information leakage into a standard quality-ladder growth model and study the long-run implications of improving the privacy of firms' data. They...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Modelling Profitability Of Indian Banks

    This paper identifies the key determinants of profitability of Indian banks. It integrates the macroeconomic environment and industry level variables of India for predicting profitability of Indian banks. A simultaneous equation system has been formulated to derive the estimates of Net Interest Income (NII) and Credit for the banking system...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    From Bounties On Exportation To The Natural And Market Price Of Labour: Smith Versus Ricardo

    Schumpeter's remarks on Ricardo's reaction to Smith's system of thought ("He studied the Wealth; he was shocked at what seemed to him to be a logical muddle; he set about straightening out this muddle; and the Principles was the ultimate result of this work of creative criticism") (1954, p.472) can...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    The Returns To Scale Effect In Labour Productivity Growth

    Labour productivity is defined as output per unit of labour input. Economists acknowledge that technical progress as well as growth in capital inputs increases labour productivity. However, little attention has been paid to the fact that changes in labour input alone could also impact labour productivity. Since this effect disappears...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Role Of Management Control In Small And Medium Enterprises Performance Assurance

    The emergence and development of Small and Medium Enterprises has been and continues to be a driving force for the remarkable economic progress, influencing and accelerating economic growth through more efficient use of resources. Characterized by flexibility, mobility, innovation and capacity to adapt, SMEs have continued to play an important...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Wealth, Income, Earnings And The Statistical Mechanics Of Flow Systems

    This paper looks at empirical data from economics regarding wealth, earnings and income, alongside a flow model for an economy based on the general Lotka-Volterra models of Levy & Solomon. The data and modelling suggest that a simple economic system might provide a tractable model for giving an exact statistical...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Pricing, Liquidity And The Control Of Dynamic Systems In Finance And Economics

    The paper discusses various practical consequences of treating economics and finance as an inherently dynamic and chaotic system. On the theoretical side this looks at the general applicability of the market-making pricing approach to economics in general. The paper also discuses the consequences of the endogenous creation of liquidity and...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Retirement Withdrawal Rates And Portfolio Success Rates: What Can The Historical Record Teach Us?

    Countless current and prospective retirees now rely on portfolio success rates calculated from the historical data for different retirement withdrawal strategies when planning their own retirements. Past history-based studies ushered forth what has become known as the 4 percent rule for retirement withdrawals, as historically 4 percent with inflation adjustments...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Small Retailing, Town Centres And Inland Territories: An "Extended Town Centre Management" Perspective

    This paper aims to analyze the public policies that can be adopted in order to support small retail firms located in town centers and countryside small towns. The role of small retailing has been recognized for the preservation of an economic, social and cultural identity of both town centers and...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Capital, Liquidity Standards And Macro Prudential Policy Tools In Financial Supervision: Addressing Sovereign Debt Problems

    During the recent Financial Crisis, as well as the 2010 and ongoing European Sovereign Debt Crisis, several governments had/have had to raise their debt levels in order to stabilize their economies. The principal problem attributed to sovereign debts, which is linked to their characteristics, is the possibility of defaults occurring...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Geographical Information Systems Technologies For Spatial Visualization Of Statistical Data

    This paper proposes an original solution to present statistical data using the facilities provided by the Geographical Information Systems, to improve the means of statistical data figure and distribution inside the territorial profile. The proposed solution allows to represent more statistical data sets, on the same map, using two different...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Safe Withdrawal Rates From Retirement Savings For Residents Of Emerging Market Countries

    Researchers have mostly focused on U.S. historical data to develop the 4 percent withdrawal rate rule. This rule suggests that retirees can safely sustain retirement withdrawals without outliving their wealth for at least 30 years, if they initially withdraw 4 percent of their savings and adjust this amount for inflation...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    On Variable Discounting In Dynamic Programming: Applications To Resource Extraction And Other Economic Models

    The discounted utility with a constant discount rate was introduced by Samuelson (1937). Twenty years later Koopmans (1960) characterized axiomatically a class of recursive utilities, which also includes the classical model as a special case. A fairly large number of researchers have used the discounting rule to various sequential decision-making...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    On Mission Drift In Microfinance Institutions

    This paper sheds light on a poorly understood phenomenon in microfinance which is often referred to as "Mission drift": A tendency reviewed by numerous microfinance institutions to extend larger average loan sizes in the process of scaling-up. The authors argue that this phenomenon is not driven by transaction cost minimization...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Design, Effectiveness And Role Of Visual Merchandising In Creating Customer Appeal

    This paper aims to find out how and to what extent outlets incorporate visual merchandising, that appeals to the customers and lead to a potential purchase. The survey method was followed to conduct the study and data were collected through sampling techniques from identified respondents, who were selected through convenient...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    The Effects Of Terrorist Activities On Foreign Direct Investment: Nonlinear Evidence

    In this paper, the authors examine the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and terrorist incidents that took place in Turkey for the period from 1991:12 to 2003:12. This research contributes to the literature by checking for a possible non-linear relationship between terrorism and Foreign Direct Investment. The data used to...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Economic Crisis And Taxation In Europe

    The recent economic crisis and taxation in the advanced countries - especially in the European nations - are linked in several ways. The tax systems may have exacerbated the crisis, and this raises the question of the need for a better system of taxation in certain economic sectors, especially in...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Patterns In U.S. Urban Growth (1790-2000)

    This paper reconsiders the evolution of the growth of American cities since 1790 in the light of new theories of urban growth. The null hypothesis for long-term growth is random growth. The authors obtain evidence supporting random growth against the alternative of mean reversion (convergence) in city sizes using panel...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Heterogeneous Expectations, Taylor Rules And The Merit Of Monetary Policy Inertia

    The authors present new results for the performance of Taylor rules in a New Keynesian model with heterogeneous expectations. Agents have either rational or adaptive expectations. They find that depending on the particular rule, expectational heterogeneity can create or increase the set of policies that leads to local explosiveness. This...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Commodity ETFs In The Japanese Stock Exchanges

    The "Financial Big Bang" reforms during the latter half of the 1990s substantially transformed the Japanese financial system, but despite this, the level of risky assets that Japanese households have in their portfolio has not increased. One reason for this is the lack of knowledge necessary to invest in risky...

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Service Innovation And The Proximity-Concentration Trade-Off Model Of Trade And FDI

    This paper introduces service innovation in the proximity-concentration trade-off model of trade and FDI (Helpman, Melitz and Yeaple, 2004). The idea is that innovation will have two main effects on service firms' choice between exports and FDI. First, innovative firms will on average have higher productivity levels than non-innovative enterprises....

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Wage Bargaining And Quality Competition

    In a standard model of vertical differentiation, wage is assumed to determine the quality. Wage is also subject to bargaining. Increased bargaining power of the worker in the low quality firm reduces quality differential, and increases price competitiveness. The Opposite happens from a similar change in the high quality firm....

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  • White Papers // May 2011

    Does Timing Of Decisions In A Mixed Duopoly Matter?

    The authors determine the endogenous order of moves in a mixed price-setting duopoly. In contrast to the existing literature on mixed oligopolies they establish the payoff equivalence of the games with an exogenously given order of moves. Hence, it does not matter whether one becomes a leader or a follower....

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Roles Of Outside Directors In Cooperative Financial Institutions

    As the governance of financial institutions is becoming an important issue, there are many papers empirically investigating the governance issues of banks, which are stock companies. However, cooperative structured financial institutions (co-ops), which have a unique governance structure different from stock companies, play a substantial role in the Japanese banking...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Who Benefited From The US Tariffs On The Chinese Tires?

    The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the short-run effect of the tariffs on Chinese tires imposed by the US in September 2009. First, the authors investigated whether the tariffs were beneficial to the US domestic tire industry in terms of employment. The empirical analysis found that there were...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    The Management Of Uncertainty In Tourism: Strategic Paradoxes And Communication

    The design of new tourism products necessarily enters into the realm of uncertainty. Such uncertainty concerns the product developed and its later use as much as the way the design project is conducted. It can be linked to events either within or outside the firm. It will be considered to...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Temporary Job Protection And Productivity Growth In EU Economies

    This paper examines cross-national and sectoral differences in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in fourteen European countries and ten sectors from 1995 to 2007. The main aim is to ascertain the role of employment protection of temporary contracts on TFP by estimating their effects with a "Difference-in-difference" approach. Results show that...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Government Transparency And Expenditure In The Rent-seeking Industry: The Case Of Japan For 1998-2004

    Since the end of the 1990s, local governments in Japan have enacted Information Disclosure Ordinances, which require the disclosure of official government information. This paper uses Japanese prefecture-level data for the period 1998 - 2004 to examine how this enactment affected the rate of government construction expenditure. The Dynamic Panel...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Dynamic Market For Lemons With Endogenous Quality Choice

    The authors analyze a dynamic market for lemons in which the quality of the good is endogenously determined by the seller. Potential buyers sequentially submit offers to one seller. The seller can make an investment that determines the quality of the item at the beginning of the game, which is...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Sequentially Rationalizable Choice With Transitive Rationales

    In this paper, the authors analyze a sequentially rationalizable choice model with a transitive rationale and a standard preference. The model in this note is more restrictive than the Rational Shortlist Method (RSM) model which is proposed in Manzini and Mariotti (2007) to capture cyclic behavior. Yet, a decision maker...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    America?s Underground Economy: Measuring The Size, Growth And Determinants Of Income Tax Evasion In The U.S

    This paper empirically investigates the extent of non compliance with the tax code and the determinants of federal income tax evasion in the U.S. Employing the most recent data the authors find that 18-19% of total reportable income is not properly reported to the IRS, giving rise to a "Tax...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Overeducation And Spatial Flexibility In Italian Local Labour Markets

    According to a recent strand of literature this paper highlights the relevance of spatial mobility as an explanatory factor of the individual risk of being overeducated. To investigate the causal link between spatial mobility and overeducation the authors use individual information about daily home-to-work commuting time and choices to relocate...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Acceleration, Stagnation And Crisis: The Role Of Policies And Institutions

    In this paper the authors study long run economic growth as a sequence of accelerations, slowdowns and crises, and estimate the role of institutions and macroeconomic policies in determining this sequence. They determine the joint effect of policies and institutions on the frequency of the four growth regimes: stable growth,...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Theory Of Financial Risk

    This paper examines relationships between theory of financial risk and size. Based on the work of Makridakis / Taleb [2009] and Taleb / Tapiero [2009], presents the problems of excessive risk and imbalances caused by the size of firms. Markets mixed on firm growth traps externalities can influence risk, high-cost...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    The Natural Resource Curse, Fiscal Decentralization, And Agglomeration Economies

    Natural resource abundance is a blessing for some countries, yet is a curse for others. The degree of fiscal decentralization may account for this divergent outcome. Resources tend to locate in remote, non-agglomerated, and sparsely populated areas; a high degree of fiscal decentralization gives a resource abundant region an advantage...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    The Optimum Currency Area. Is The Euro Zone An Optimum Currency Area?

    Although analyzed in terms of criteria for defining an optimum currency area, the authors could appreciate that EU fulfils certain criteria established within the theory of the optimum currency area. But in comparison with USA or Canada, the EU has fewer premises to effectively become such an area. The Economic...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    A Simple Model Of Dairy Product Supply

    Dairy products are characterized by two properties, namely, perishability and short-periodic production. These properties are so unique that conventional studies in agricultural economics or in industrial organization might not explain the dairy product supply well. Hence, to understand this dairy product supply, the authors model it based on these two...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Workers' Risk Underestimation And Occupational Health And Safety Regulation

    The standard treatment of occupational risk in the labour market is conducted in terms of the theory of compensating wage differentials, the basic characteristic of which is that workers can fully estimate actual occupational risks. However, research in cognitive psychology, and recent advances in economic psychology, suggest that individuals consistently...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Endogenous Market Structures And The Business Cycle

    The authors propose a flexible prices model where endogenous market structures and search and matching frictions in the labor market interact endogenously. The interplay between firms endogenous entry, strategic interactions among producers and labor market frictions represents a strong amplification channel of technology shocks on labor market variables, and helps...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    The Impact Of Exogenous Asymmetry On Trade And Agglomeration In Core-periphery Model

    The paper studies the Krugman's CP model in the weakly explored case of asymmetric regions in two settings: international trade and agglomeration processes. First setting implies that the industrial labor is immobile, while second one considers mobile industrial labor and long-run equilibria. Analytical study of both settings requires application of...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Intelectual Capital (IC) Models ? A Comparative Approach

    This paper presents a comparative analysis of some intellectual capital models. The analysis is based on four criteria: the main concepts and classifications on which the models are based on, the analysis of functional characteristics, the analysis of operational performances, limitations. The main concepts and classifications on which the models...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Flattening Of The Phillips Curve And The Role Of Oil Price: An Unobserved Components Model For The USA And Australia

    The authors use the unobserved components model of Harvey (1989 and 2011) to estimate the Phillips Curve (PC) for the USA and Australia, by augmenting it with oil prices. They found that the level coefficient of inflation and the coefficient of demand pressure have declined and contributed to the flattening...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    How Uncertainty Reduces Greenhouse Gas Emissions

    China has becoming in 2006 the world's largest emitter of Greenhouse Gases (GHG), responsible for one-fifth of world's emissions from power generation. And further strong growth in this sector is to be expected. To provide these additional power generation capacities substantial investments in China's energy infrastructure are necessary. But the...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    The Liquidation - Based On Evaluation And Accounting Information

    From a juridical point of view, an entity is considered in difficulty in the situation of payments' ceasing that is when it cannot face its due debts with the available funds. In the case of a financial depreciation, the short term liabilities are superior to the assets. The negative net...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    Microfinance Impact Evaluation: A Managerial Perspective

    Impact evaluation has been a popular method for the assessment of various policy, project or program level interventions. It has a wider application in social science domain where it is a preferred method of evaluation of the changes brought by a particular development intervention. Asian Development Bank defines IE as...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    India's FDI Inflows: Trends And Concepts

    India's inward investment regime went through a series of changes since economic reforms were ushered in two decades back. The expectation of the policy makers was that an "Investor friendly" regime will help India establish itself as a preferred destination of foreign investors. These expectations remained largely unfulfilled despite the...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    What Drives Fixed Asset Holding And Risk-adjusted Performance Of Corporate In China? An Empirical Analysis

    This paper attempts to shed light on the over-investment debate by investigating listed firms in China. Firms with higher level of fixed asset holding, higher level of overhead expenses, and being covered by the tax-favor policy in China are found to be associated with a lower risk-adjusted performance. In addition,...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Fire Sales In Housing Market: Is The House-searching Process Similar To A Theme Park Visit?

    Three striking empirical regularities have been repeatedly reported: the positive correlation between housing prices and trading volume, between housing price and the Time?]On?]The?]Market (TOM), and the existence of price dispersion. This paper provides perhaps the first unifying framework which mimics these phenomena in a simple competitive search framework. In the...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Is Per Capita GDP Non-linear Stationary In SAARC Countries?

    Using data for SAARC region, the authors found real GDP per capita is nonlinear stationary implying that shocks to economy by economic policies (external or internal) have permanent effects on real per capita GDP of SAARC countries. This finding reveals that classical growth model works better to boost economic growth...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    A Model Of Total Factor Productivity Built On Hayek's View Of Knowledge: What Really Went Wrong With Socialist Planned Economies?

    Because Hayek's view goes beyond the Walrasian framework, his descriptive arguments on socialist planned economies are prone to be misunderstood. This paper clarifies Hayek's arguments by using them as a basis to construct a model of total factor productivity. The model shows that productivity depends substantially on the intelligence of...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Governance And Enterprise Restructuring In Southeast Europe ? Gross Domestic Product And Foreign Direct Investments

    The institutional changes and corporate governance mechanisms in national governance systems are essentially important for the transition process, thus there are specificities of corporate governance mechanisms in transition economies that indicate the progress towards market based economy. Most notable are: the market-based corporate governance mechanisms, management structure based corporate governance...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Attributes To Corporate Governance And Enterprise Restructuring In The Macedonian Economy

    Corporate governance is most often defined in terms of the roles, responsibilities, and interactions of top management and the board of directors. Using information on Macedonia, obtained through various sources, this paper is an attempt on determining some of the factors that influence the development of governance and enterprise restructuring...

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  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    28 Months Later: How Inflation Targeters Outperformed Their Peers In The Great Recession

    Twenty-eight months after the onset of the global financial crisis of August 2008, the evidence on post-crisis GDP growth emerging from a sample of 51 advanced and emerging countries is flattering for inflation targeting countries relative to their peers. The positive effect of IT is not explained away by plausible...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Governance And Enterprise Restructuring - The Case Of Macedonia

    Governance and enterprise restructuring is already defined indicator in EBRD's studies and transition reports, measuring the effective corporate governance and corporate control exercised through domestic financial institutions and markets, fostering market-driven restructuring. As of the beginning of the transition process, governance and enterprise restructuring remains in the center, as essential...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    The Long-run Relationship Between Savings And Investment In Oil-exporting Developing Countries: A Case Study Of The Gulf Arab States

    The relationship between national saving and investment over the long term is examined for six Gulf Arab oil-exporting developing countries - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The authors show that, provided some large outliers are properly accounted for, long-run equilibrium relationships between saving and...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Cultural Preference On Fertility And The Long-run Growth Effects Of Intellectual Property Rights

    How does patent policy affect long-run economic growth through the population growth rate? To analyze this question, the authors develop an R&D-based growth model with endogenous fertility. In recent vintages of R&D-based growth models in which scale effects are absent, the long-run growth rate depends on the population growth rate...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Inflation Persistence And The Rationality Of Inflation Expectations

    The rational expectations hypothesis for survey and model-based inflation forecasts − from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Greenbook respectively − is examined by properly taking into account the persistence characteristics of the data. The finding of near-unit-root effects in the inflation and inflation expectations series motivates the use...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Accounting For Depletion Of Oil And Gas Resources In Malaysia

    This paper provides an assessment of the changes in the availability of oil and gas resources in Malaysia. The physical and monetary balance sheets for crude oil and natural gas for the period 2000- 2007 was constructed. The net present value of expected future incomes to reflect the value of...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Heterogeneous Productivity Shocks, Elasticity Of Substitution And Aggregate Fluctuations

    The authors use a Dixit-Stiglitz setting to show that aggregate productivity fluctuations can be generated through changes in the dispersion of firms' productivity. When the elasticity of substitution among goods is larger than one, an increase in the dispersion raises aggregate productivity because firms at the top of the distribution...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Firms' Money Demand And Monetary Policy

    Standard New Keynesian models for monetary policy analysis are "Cashless". When the nominal interest rate is the central bank's operating instrument, the LM equation is endogenous and, it is argued, can be ignored. The modern theoretical and quantitative debate on the importance of money for the conduct of monetary policy,...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Life-cycle Consumption: Can Single Agent Models Get It Right?

    In this paper, the authors study differences between consumption predictions from a single agent model and "Adult equivalent" consumption predictions from a model where household size evolves deterministically over the life-cycle and affects individual preferences for consumption. Using a theoretical model they prove that, under mild conditions, these predictions are...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Challenge Of Economic Growth And The Concern For Energy Security: A Comparative Analysis Of South And South-east Asia

    Rapidly increasing dependence of the economic growth process on energy and the depletion of fossil fuel reserves at a fast pace have raised concerns for securing energy supply across the world. The developing nations remain the worst affected on at least two counts: first, they are at the lower levels...

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  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    A Simple Bargaining Mechanism That Elicits Truthful Reservation Prices

    The authors describe a simple 2-stage mechanism that induces two bargainers to be truthful in reporting their reservation prices in a 1st stage. If these prices criss-cross, the referee reports that they overlap, and the bargainers proceed to make offers in a 2nd stage. The average of the 2nd-stage offers...

    Provided By Munich Personal Repec Archive