National Bank of Belgium

Displaying 1-40 of 64 results

  • White Papers // Jun 2011

    Economic Importance Of The Belgian Ports: Flemish Maritime Ports, Li?ge Port Complex And The Port Of Brussels - Report 2009

    This paper is an annual publication issued by the Microeconomic Analysis service of the National Bank of Belgium. The Flemish maritime ports (Antwerp, Ghent, Oostende, Zeebrugge), the Autonomous Port of Li?ge and the port of Brussels play a major role in their respective regional economies and in the Belgian economy,...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Wage Structure Effects Of International Trade : Evidence From A Small Open Economy

    In the last few decades, international trade has expanded not only between industrialised countries, but also between high- and low-wage countries. This important change has raised questions on how international trade affects the labour market. In this spirit, this paper aims to investigate the impact of international trade on wage...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Mar 2011

    The Link Between Mobile Telephony Arrears and Credit Arrears

    At the request of the Minister for Climate and Energy, Paul Magnette, who is also responsible for Consumer Affairs, the NBB's Microeconomic Analysis Service conducted an investigation into the link between payment arrears for mobile telephony and arrears on loan repayments. In this inquiry, which was carried out using data...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions : A Discrete Choice Approach

    The author proposes a discrete choice method for estimating monetary policy reaction functions based on research by Hu and Phillips (2004). This method distinguishes between determining the underlying desired rate which drives policy rate changes and actually implementing interest rate changes. The method is applied to ECB rate setting between...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Firm Entry, Inflation And The Monetary Transmission Mechanism

    This paper estimates a business cycle model with endogenous firm entry by matching impulse responses to a monetary policy shock in US data. The VAR includes net business formation, profits and markups. The authors evaluate two channels through which entry may influence the monetary transmission process. Through the competition effect,...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions: A Discrete Choice Approach

    The author proposes a discrete choice method for estimating monetary policy reaction functions based on research by Hu and Phillips (2004). This method distinguishes between determining the underlying desired rate which drives policy rate changes and actually implementing interest rate changes. The method is applied to ECB rate setting between...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Wage And Employment Effects Of A Wage Norm: The Polish Transition Experience

    Most transition countries used tax-supported wage norms in the early 1990's, as a part of their market liberalization programs. This paper analyzes how a firm-level tax (or subsidy) on deviations from a pre-set wage norm may promote employment by rotating the labor demand curve perceived by the workers' union around...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Nov 2010

    The Taylor Principle And (In-)Determinacy In A New Keynesian Model With Hiring Frictions And Skill Loss

    The authors introduce skill decay during unemployment into Blanchard and Gali's (2008) New-Keynesian model with hiring frictions and real-wage rigidity. Plausible values of quarterly skill decay and real-wage rigidity turn the long-run marginal cost-unemployment relationship positive in a "European" labour market with little hiring but not in a fluid "American"...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Alexandre Lamfalussy And The Origins Of The BIS Macro-prudential Approach To Financial Stability

    While the financial crisis has left many reputations in tatters, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is receiving more and more attention for its analysis of financial stability issues. The BIS is renowned for taking a broad approach to financial stability, "Marrying" the micro and macro-prudential dimensions of financial stability...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Trade And The Global Recession

    The ratio of global trade to GDP declined by nearly 30 percent during the global recession of 2008- 2009. This large drop in international trade has generated significant attention and concern. Did the decline simply reflect the severity of the recession for traded goods industries? Or alternatively, did international trade...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    The Internationalization Process Of Firms : From Exports To FDI?

    The authors describe a simple model in which domestic firms decide whether to serve a foreign market through exports or horizontal Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This choice involves a trade-off between the higher variable trade costs associated with exports and the higher fixed set-up costs associated with establishing foreign subsidiaries....

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Multi-Product Exporters, Carry-Along Trade And The Margins Of Trade

    New empirical and theoretical work has highlighted the importance of multi-product firms in international trade flows. The authors examine multi-product exporters in the small open economy of Belgium, considering their importance and the relationship between the margins of trade and firm productivity, both across firms and within firms over time....

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Can Belgian Firms Cope With The Chinese Dragon And The Asian Tigers? The Export Performance Of Multi-Product Firms On Foreign Markets

    Exporting firms are affected in many ways by competition on foreign markets. This paper focuses on the impact of Asian competition on the bilateral export performance of Belgian firms, controlling for firm level as well as destination-market characteristics. Export performance is measured in several ways, including the export intensity, the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Market Size, Competition And The Product Mix Of Exporters

    Recent empirical evidence has highlighted how the export patterns of multi-product firms dominate world trade flows, and how these multi-product firms respond to different economic conditions across export markets by varying the number of products they export. In this paper, the authors further analyze the effects of those export market...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    The Productivity And Export Spillovers Of The Internationalisation Behaviour Of Belgian Firms

    This paper analyses to what extent the decision to start exporting may be subject to spillovers of the internationalisation behaviour of other (foreign and domestic) firms. The authors distinguish between two possible channels: effects on productivity and effects on the perceived level of sunk costs of exporting. For both channels,...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Trade In Services : IT And Task Content

    In this paper, the authors investigate the determinants of the dramatic increase in ser-vices tradability focusing on the extensive margin of the phenomenon. They use balance sheet and firm-level service trade information over the period 1995-2005 provided by the National Bank of Belgium and they merge it with information on...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Intermediaries In International Trade : Direct Versus Indirect Modes Of Export

    This paper contributes to the relatively new literature on the role of intermediaries in international trade. Using Italian firm-level data, the authors document significant differences between exporters of different types and highlight the role of country-specific fixed cost in the choice of direct versus indirect modes of export. Recent theoretical...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Internationalization Strategy And Performance Of Small And Medium Sized Enterprises

    Focusing on the timing and geographical scope of import and export activities of Belgian Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs), the paper analyzes the importance, structural features and performance implications of firms that recently started to export following the geographical configuration of their international trade operations and their year of...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    The Internationalization Process Of Firms: From Exports To FDI?

    The authors describe a simple model in which domestic firms decide whether to serve a foreign market through exports or horizontal Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This choice involves a trade-off between the higher variable trade costs associated with exports and the higher fixed set-up costs associated with establishing foreign subsidiaries....

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Labour Demand Adjustment: Does Foreign Ownership Matter?

    This paper examines whether multinational companies differ in their employment adjustment from domestic firms, on the basis of a panel of Belgian firms for the period 1997-2007. The authors focus on incumbent firms as, in general, they account for the largest fraction of net employment creation, especially among MultiNational Firms...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    The Effects Of Internationalisation On Domestic Labour Demand By Skills: Firm-Level Evidence For Belgium

    The authors empirically investigate the effects of the internationalisation of Belgian firms on domestic demand for production and non-production workers, which are used as proxies for unskilled and skilled labour. Distinction is made between home-employment effects of firms' internationalisation, through either international trade or outward foreign direct investment, in high-income...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Trade With China And Skill Upgrading : Evidence From Belgian Firm Level Data

    The authors use Belgian firm-level data over the period 1996-2007 to analyze the impact of imports from China and other low-wage countries on firm growth, exit, and skill upgrading in manufacturing. For this purpose they use both industry-level and firm-level imports by country of origin and distinguish between firm-level outsourcing...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // May 2010

    What Determines Euro Area Bank CDS Spreads?

    This paper decomposes the explained part of the CDS spread changes of 31 listed euro area banks according to various risk drivers. The choice of the credit risk drivers is inspired by the Merton (1974) model. Individual CDS liquidity and other market and business variables are identified to complement the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    A Century Of Macroeconomic And Monetary Thought At The National Bank Of Belgium

    A century of macroeconomic and monetary thought at the National Bank of Belgium traces the history of economic research at the National Bank of Belgium, from the early decades of the 20th century to its present functioning in the Eurosystem. The paper also goes into the major economic policy debates,...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Getting Rid Of Keynes? A Survey Of The History Of Macroeconomics From Keynes To Lucas And Beyond

    The aim of this paper is to recount the ebbs and flows of Keynesianism over the history of macroeconomics. The bulk of the paper consists of a discussion of the main episodes of the unfolding of macroeconomics (Keynesian macroeconomics, monetarism, new classical macroeconomics, real business cycle models and new neoclassical...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    The Development Of Monetary Policy In The 20th Century - Some Reflections

    In this paper, the author outlines - from a practitioner's as well as from a researcher's perspective - several of the key developments that took place during the last century in monetary policy. In particular, I describe how the monetary system evolved from gold standard, prevailing throughout most of the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Apr 2010

    Inter-Industry Wage Differentials In EU Countries: What Do Cross-Country Time-Varying Data Add To The Picture?

    This paper documents the existence of inter-industry wage differentials across a large number of industries for eight EU countries (Belgium, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands and Spain) at two different points in time (in general, 1995 and 2002). It then looks into possible explanations for the main patterns...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Discriminatory Fees, Coordination And Investment In Shared ATM Networks

    This paper empirically examines the effects of discriminatory fees on ATM investment and welfare, and considers the role of coordination in ATM investment between banks. The authors' main findings are that foreign fees tend to reduce ATM availability and (consumer) welfare, whereas surcharges positively affect ATM availability and the different...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Nov 2009

    Empirical Evidence On The Aggregate Effects Of Anticipated And Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks

    The authors provide empirical evidence on the dynamic effects of tax liability changes in the United States. They distinguish between surprise and anticipated tax changes using a timing convention. They document that pre-announced but not yet implemented tax cuts give rise to contractions in output, investment and hours worked, while...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2009

    On The Origins Of The BIS Macro-prudential Approach To Financial Stability: Alexandre Lamfalussy And Financial Fragility

    Among the international policy institutions, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is known for its sensitivity to financial stability issues. Attention to the "Macro-prudential" dimension of financial stability is very typical for the BIS. The Bank's macro-prudential approach first came to the fore in the 1986 Cross Report. It defined...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2009

    Staying, Dropping, Or Switching: The Impacts Of Bank Mergers On Small Firms

    Assessing the impacts of bank mergers on small firms requires separating borrowers with single versus multiple banking relationships and distinguishing the three alternatives of "Staying," "Dropping," and "Switching" of relationship. Single-relationship borrowers who "Switch" to another bank following a merger will be less harmed than those whose relationship is "Dropped"...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Sep 2009

    Micro Data On Nominal Rigidity, Inflation Persistence And Optimal Monetary Policy

    The popular Calvo model with indexation (Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans, 2005) and sticky information (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) model have guided much of the monetary policy discussion. The strength of these approaches is that they can explain the persistence of inflation. However, both of these theories are inconsistent with the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Aug 2009

    How Are Firms' Wages And Prices Linked: Survey Evidence In Europe

    This paper presents new evidence on the patterns of price and wage adjustment in European firms and on the extent of nominal rigidities. It uses a unique dataset collected through a firm-level survey conducted in a broad range of countries and covering various sectors. Several conclusions are drawn from this...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jul 2009

    The Use Of Fixed-Term Contracts And The Labour Adjustment In Belgium

    This paper aims to document and analyze the use of Fixed-Term Contracts (FTC) and to analyze the dynamics of labour adjustment by type of labour contract at the firm level, drawing on the detailed breakdown of both the labour force and labour entries and exits that are available in the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jul 2009

    Model Misspecification, Learning And The Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle

    Rational expectations models fail to explain the disconnect between the exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. In line with survey evidence on the behaviour of foreign exchange traders, the authors introduce model misspecification and learning into a standard monetary model. Agents use simple forecasting rules based on a restricted information set....

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jul 2009

    A Global Assessment Of The Degree Of Price Stickiness - Results From The NBB Business Survey

    In this paper, the authors estimate the degree of price stickiness in Belgium using the NBB business survey. Compared to similar empirical exercises based on consumer or producer price data, the micro data set used allows them to cover most of the Belgian economy in one exercise and therefore provides...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jul 2009

    Analysis Of Business Demography Using Markov Chains: An Application To Belgian Data

    This paper applies the theory of finite Markov chains to analyze the demographic evolution of Belgian enterprises. While other methodologies concentrate on the entry and exit of firms, the Markov approach also analyzes migrations between economic sectors. Besides helping to provide a fuller picture of the evolution of the population,...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jun 2009

    Understanding Inflation Dynamics : Where Do We Stand?

    The author summarizes recent progress made in the literature on inflation dynamics. This has been a very productive area of research due to the development of the so-called New Keynesian model and the availability of new macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence. Nevertheless, a number of problems still subsist. In particular the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jun 2009

    Back To The Basics In Banking? A Micro-Analysis Of Banking System Stability

    This paper analyzes the relationship between banks' divergent strategies toward specialization and diversification of financial activities and their ability to withstand a banking sector crash. The authors first generate market-based measures of banks' systemic risk exposures using extreme value analysis. Systemic banking risk is measured as the tail beta, which...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jun 2009

    Input-output Connections Between Sectors And Optimal Monetary Policy

    This paper considers the monetary policy implications of a model that features input-output connections between stages of production, so that a distinction between CPI inflation and PPI inflation arises. More specifically, this paper addresses the policy conclusion by K. Huang and Z. Liu [2005, "Inflation targeting: What inflation rate to...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Sep 2008

    Exporters And Credit Constraints. A Firm-Level Approach

    By building a theoretical model and taking it to the data with two novel datasets, this paper analyses the interaction between credit constraints and exporting behaviour. Building a heterogeneous firms model of international trade with liquidity-constrained firms yields several predictions on the equilibrium relationships between productivity, credit constraints and exports...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Sep 2008

    Export Destinations And Learning-By-Exporting : Evidence From Belgium

    This paper evaluates the causal effects of exports to different destination countries using a comprehensive dataset on Belgian manufacturing firms from 1998 to 2005. Initial evidence suggests that, before export market entry, exporters to more developed economies have superior productivity levels than non-exporters and firms exporting to less developed countries....

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Monetary Policy, Asset Prices And Macroeconomic Conditions : A Panel-VAR Study

    This paper studies the relationships between inflation, economic activity, credit, monetary policy, and residential property and equity prices in 17 OECD countries, using quarterly data for 1986-2006. Using a panel VAR, the authors find plausible and significant responses to a monetary policy shock. Shocks to asset prices have a positive,...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Dec 2008

    Rent-Sharing Under Different Bargaining Regimes : Evidence From Linked Employer-Employee Data

    In many European countries, the majority of workers have their wage rates determined directly by industry-level agreements. For some workers, industry agreements are supplemented by firm-specific agreements. Yet, the relative importance of individual company and industry agreements (in other words, the degree of centralisation) differs drastically across industries. The authors...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // May 2009

    Inflation Dynamics With Labour Market Matching : Assessing Alternative Specifications

    The key task of central banks is to maintain price stability by controlling inflation and, for this reason, it is important to understand what drives the dynamics of inflation. A crucial element of this is the underlying nature of nominal and real frictions associated with the adjustments of prices in...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jun 2009

    Understanding Inflation Dynamics : Where Do We Stand?

    The author summarizes recent progress made in the literature on inflation dynamics. This has been a very productive area of research due to the development of the so-called New Keynesian model and the availability of new macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence. Nevertheless, a number of problems still subsist. In particular the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Sep 2009

    Micro Data On Nominal Rigidity, Inflation Persistence And Optimal Monetary Policy

    The popular Calvo model with indexation (Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans, 2005) and sticky information (Mankiw and Reis, 2002) model have guided much of the monetary policy discussion. The strength of these approaches is that they can explain the persistence of inflation. However, both of these theories are inconsistent with the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Trade And The Global Recession

    The ratio of global trade to GDP declined by nearly 30 percent during the global recession of 2008- 2009. This large drop in international trade has generated significant attention and concern. Did the decline simply reflect the severity of the recession for traded goods industries? Or alternatively, did international trade...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    The Internationalization Process Of Firms : From Exports To FDI?

    The authors describe a simple model in which domestic firms decide whether to serve a foreign market through exports or horizontal Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). This choice involves a trade-off between the higher variable trade costs associated with exports and the higher fixed set-up costs associated with establishing foreign subsidiaries....

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Multi-Product Exporters, Carry-Along Trade And The Margins Of Trade

    New empirical and theoretical work has highlighted the importance of multi-product firms in international trade flows. The authors examine multi-product exporters in the small open economy of Belgium, considering their importance and the relationship between the margins of trade and firm productivity, both across firms and within firms over time....

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Can Belgian Firms Cope With The Chinese Dragon And The Asian Tigers? The Export Performance Of Multi-Product Firms On Foreign Markets

    Exporting firms are affected in many ways by competition on foreign markets. This paper focuses on the impact of Asian competition on the bilateral export performance of Belgian firms, controlling for firm level as well as destination-market characteristics. Export performance is measured in several ways, including the export intensity, the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Estimating Monetary Policy Reaction Functions : A Discrete Choice Approach

    The author proposes a discrete choice method for estimating monetary policy reaction functions based on research by Hu and Phillips (2004). This method distinguishes between determining the underlying desired rate which drives policy rate changes and actually implementing interest rate changes. The method is applied to ECB rate setting between...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Feb 2011

    Firm Entry, Inflation And The Monetary Transmission Mechanism

    This paper estimates a business cycle model with endogenous firm entry by matching impulse responses to a monetary policy shock in US data. The VAR includes net business formation, profits and markups. The authors evaluate two channels through which entry may influence the monetary transmission process. Through the competition effect,...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Apr 2011

    Wage Structure Effects Of International Trade : Evidence From A Small Open Economy

    In the last few decades, international trade has expanded not only between industrialised countries, but also between high- and low-wage countries. This important change has raised questions on how international trade affects the labour market. In this spirit, this paper aims to investigate the impact of international trade on wage...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Market Size, Competition And The Product Mix Of Exporters

    Recent empirical evidence has highlighted how the export patterns of multi-product firms dominate world trade flows, and how these multi-product firms respond to different economic conditions across export markets by varying the number of products they export. In this paper, the authors further analyze the effects of those export market...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    The Productivity And Export Spillovers Of The Internationalisation Behaviour Of Belgian Firms

    This paper analyses to what extent the decision to start exporting may be subject to spillovers of the internationalisation behaviour of other (foreign and domestic) firms. The authors distinguish between two possible channels: effects on productivity and effects on the perceived level of sunk costs of exporting. For both channels,...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Trade In Services : IT And Task Content

    In this paper, the authors investigate the determinants of the dramatic increase in ser-vices tradability focusing on the extensive margin of the phenomenon. They use balance sheet and firm-level service trade information over the period 1995-2005 provided by the National Bank of Belgium and they merge it with information on...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Intermediaries In International Trade : Direct Versus Indirect Modes Of Export

    This paper contributes to the relatively new literature on the role of intermediaries in international trade. Using Italian firm-level data, the authors document significant differences between exporters of different types and highlight the role of country-specific fixed cost in the choice of direct versus indirect modes of export. Recent theoretical...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Internationalization Strategy And Performance Of Small And Medium Sized Enterprises

    Focusing on the timing and geographical scope of import and export activities of Belgian Small and Medium sized Enterprises (SMEs), the paper analyzes the importance, structural features and performance implications of firms that recently started to export following the geographical configuration of their international trade operations and their year of...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Sep 2010

    Trade With China And Skill Upgrading : Evidence From Belgian Firm Level Data

    The authors use Belgian firm-level data over the period 1996-2007 to analyze the impact of imports from China and other low-wage countries on firm growth, exit, and skill upgrading in manufacturing. For this purpose they use both industry-level and firm-level imports by country of origin and distinguish between firm-level outsourcing...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Mar 2009

    The Belgian Iron And Steel Industry In The International Context

    This paper provides a survey of the main developments in the iron and steel industry over the last few decades. The first chapter covers the changing conditions on international markets and identifies the main challenges facing the companies in this sector. These include the boom in China, the increasing prices...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Liquidity, Inflation And Asset Prices In A Time-Varying Framework For The Euro Area

    In this paper, the authors investigate how the dynamic effects of excess liquidity shocks on economic activity, asset prices and inflation differ over time. They show that the impact varies considerably over time, depends on the source of increased liquidity (M1, M3-M1 or credit) and the underlying state of the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Aug 2008

    Multivariate Structural Time Series Models With Dual Cycles : Implications For Measurement Of Output Gap And Potential Growth

    Structural time series models applied to the factor inputs of a production function often lead to small output gaps and consequently to erratic measures of potential growth. The authors introduce a dual cycle model which is an extension to the multivariate trend plus cycle model with phase shifts ? la...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Aug 2008

    Imperfect Exchange Rate Pass-Through : The Role Of Distribution Services And Variable Demand Elasticity

    This paper examines which mechanisms are likely to dampen the price pressures in the wake of exchange rate movements. In addition to nominal frictions frequently used in sticky-price models, it jointly introduces two features that have hitherto been considered separately in the existing literature, i.e. a variable demand elasticity ?...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2010

    Alexandre Lamfalussy And The Origins Of The BIS Macro-prudential Approach To Financial Stability

    While the financial crisis has left many reputations in tatters, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is receiving more and more attention for its analysis of financial stability issues. The BIS is renowned for taking a broad approach to financial stability, "Marrying" the micro and macro-prudential dimensions of financial stability...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2009

    On The Origins Of The BIS Macro-prudential Approach To Financial Stability: Alexandre Lamfalussy And Financial Fragility

    Among the international policy institutions, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is known for its sensitivity to financial stability issues. Attention to the "Macro-prudential" dimension of financial stability is very typical for the BIS. The Bank's macro-prudential approach first came to the fore in the 1986 Cross Report. It defined...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jan 2010

    Discriminatory Fees, Coordination And Investment In Shared ATM Networks

    This paper empirically examines the effects of discriminatory fees on ATM investment and welfare, and considers the role of coordination in ATM investment between banks. The authors' main findings are that foreign fees tend to reduce ATM availability and (consumer) welfare, whereas surcharges positively affect ATM availability and the different...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Financial (In)Stability, Supervision And Liquidity Injections : A Dynamic General Equilibrium Approach

    This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with interactions between a heterogeneous banking sector and other private agents. The authors introduce endogenous default probabilities for both firms and banks, and allow for bank regulation and liquidity injection into the interbank market. Their aim is to understand the importance...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jul 2009

    The Use Of Fixed-Term Contracts And The Labour Adjustment In Belgium

    This paper aims to document and analyze the use of Fixed-Term Contracts (FTC) and to analyze the dynamics of labour adjustment by type of labour contract at the firm level, drawing on the detailed breakdown of both the labour force and labour entries and exits that are available in the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jul 2009

    Model Misspecification, Learning And The Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle

    Rational expectations models fail to explain the disconnect between the exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. In line with survey evidence on the behaviour of foreign exchange traders, the authors introduce model misspecification and learning into a standard monetary model. Agents use simple forecasting rules based on a restricted information set....

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Jun 2009

    Back To The Basics In Banking? A Micro-Analysis Of Banking System Stability

    This paper analyzes the relationship between banks' divergent strategies toward specialization and diversification of financial activities and their ability to withstand a banking sector crash. The authors first generate market-based measures of banks' systemic risk exposures using extreme value analysis. Systemic banking risk is measured as the tail beta, which...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Apr 2009

    The Young Lamfalussy: An Empirical And Policy-Oriented Growth Theorist

    Alexandre Lamfalussy has been highly influential in the process of European monetary and financial unification. In this paper, the authors will analyze the work of the "Young Lamfalussy" (from the mid 1950s to the mid 1960s). Lamfalussy started his career as an academic, focusing on growth theory and Belgian and...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Apr 2009

    Labour Flows In Belgium

    The paper describes job flows in Belgium using micro data at the firm level collected through the annual social balance sheets that companies have to file with the National Bank of Belgium. The coverage of the paper is very broad: all industries and commercial services are included. The authors contribute...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Mar 2009

    Rigid Labour Compensation And Flexible Employment?

    Using firm-level data for Belgium over the period 1997-2005, the authors evaluate the elasticity of firms' labour and real average labour compensation to microeconomic Total Factor Productivity (TFP). Their results may be summarised as follows. First, they find that the elasticity of average labour compensation to firm-level TFP is very...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Feb 2009

    Sequential Bargaining In A New Keynesian Model With Frictional Unemployment And Staggered Wage Negotiation

    The authors consider a model with frictional unemployment and staggered wage bargaining where hours worked are negotiated for each period. The workers' bargaining power in the working time negotiations affects both unemployment volatility and inflation persistence. The closer to zero this parameter, the more firms tend to adjust on the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Dec 2008

    Forecast With Judgment And Models

    In this paper, the author proposes a model-consistent and parsimonious method of combining judgmental and model-based forecasts. The author suggests modeling the judgmental forecasts as optimal estimates of the variables of interest, made with a different, possibly more informative, information set. The author then shows how they can be accounted...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Dec 2008

    Rent-Sharing Under Different Bargaining Regimes: Evidence From Linked Employer-Employee Data

    In many European countries, the majority of workers have their wage rates determined directly by industry-level agreements. For some workers, industry agreements are supplemented by firm-specific agreements. Yet, the relative importance of individual company and industry agreements (in other words, the degree of centralisation) differs drastically across industries. The authors...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Risk Premiums And Macroeconomic Dynamics In A Heterogeneous Agent Model

    The authors analyze financial risk premiums and real economic dynamics in a DSGE model with three types of agents - shareholders, bondholders and workers - that differ in participation in the capital market and in terms of risk aversion. Aggregate productivity and distribution risk are shared among these agents via...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Monetary Policy, Asset Prices And Macroeconomic Conditions: A Panel-VAR Study

    This paper studies the relationships between inflation, economic activity, credit, monetary policy, and residential property and equity prices in 17 OECD countries, using quarterly data for 1986-2006. Using a panel VAR, the authors find plausible and significant responses to a monetary policy shock. Shocks to asset prices have a positive,...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium

  • White Papers // Oct 2008

    Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence From An Estimated DSGE Model

    The authors study sources and consequences of fluctuations in the housing market. The upward trend in real housing prices of the last 40 years can be explained by slow technological progress in the housing sector. Over the business cycle, housing demand and housing technology shocks explain one-quarter each of the...

    Provided By National Bank of Belgium