Data Management

A Closer Look At The World Business Cycle Synchronization

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Executive Summary

This paper uses the period by period correlation index proposed by Cerqueira and Martins(2009) and two transformations that correct some shortcomings of this index to analyze how business cycle synchronization has changed since 1960. These indexes by distinguishing negative correlations due to episodes in single years, asynchronous behavior in turbulent times and synchronous behavior over stable periods will allow a more detailed analysis than if the authors used the linear correlation coefficient over time windows.

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