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This paper presents a link error prediction model capable of accurately predicting the block error ratio in OFDM systems with hybrid ARQ. The joint modeling of the channel coding and the retransmissions solves many of the issues with present models. The authors' model is based on accumulated conditional mutual information, mutual information effective SNR averaging, and simulated AWGN performance curves. As a consequence, their model is fading-insensitive and takes into account the non-ideality of rate matching. The model can be applied to any OFDM system that utilizes rate matching as a means to achieve adaptive modulation and coding and HARQ.
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