Business Intelligence

A Real Time Evaluation Of The Central Bank Of Chile GDP Growth Forecasts

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Executive Summary

In this paper, the authors evaluate the Central Bank of Chile annual GDP growth forecasts over the period 1991-2009 using a real-time database. They compare the Central Bank of Chile forecasts with those of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), Consensus Forecasts, and simple time-series models. They compare all forecasts to first and quasi-final GDP growth vintages. They evaluate a number of different forecast properties, including forecast accuracy and efficiency. They report mixed results in terms of root mean squared prediction errors. Depending on the sample period, the forecast horizon and the vintage used in the analysis, forecasts from the Central Bank of Chile may outperform or be outperformed by the benchmarks.

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