A Stochastic Model of the Damage Propagation in Database Systems

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Executive Summary

Security defense tools like firewalls and antivirus software's are not sufficient to defend against dynamic threats to database systems. Successful attacks could not only seriously impair the integrity of a database but also potentially harm the business operation, assets, and profitability. A better understanding of the attack behavior and its degree of spreading is needed. In this paper, the authors provide a careful analysis of threats to database security and their propagation in a database system. Based on the classical Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model, a stochastic damage propagation model is proposed. This model leads to a better understanding and prediction of the scale and speed of damage propagation in a database system.

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