Project Management

An Investment Model Via Regime-Switching Economic Indicators

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Executive Summary

The Internet bubble and 2008-2009 economic crash exposed severe limitations of traditional portfolio models, especially the dependence on a static framework e.g. a constant covariance matrix. This paper develops a novel dynamic optimization model for constructing a long-short equity portfolio. A hidden Markov model captures the critical market sentiments, with expected asset returns highly dependent on the associated economic regimes. Expected equity returns are characterized by a set of eight economic factors within a regime-switching auto-regressive approach.

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