Approximating And Forecasting Macroeconomic Signals In Real-Time

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Executive Summary

The author optimally incorporates factors estimated from a large panel of macroeconomic time series in the estimation of two relevant signals related to real activity: business cycle fluctuations and the medium to long-run component of output growth. This latter signal conveys information on the growth of real activity but contains no high-frequency oscillations. For forecasting purposes the author shows that targeting this object can prove more useful than targeting the original (noisy) time series. In fact, with conventional models, high-frequency fluctuations are always approximated despite being (possibly) unpredictable or idiosyncratic.

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