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Asia's Post-Global Financial Crisis Adjustment: A Model-Based Dynamic Scenario Analysis

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Executive Summary

Using a dynamic global general equilibrium model, the paper assesses the short- and medium-term impacts of the global financial crisis on Asian economies and the implications of post-crisis adjustment in Emerging East Asia (EEA) for the world economy. The analysis suggests that EEA is unlikely to be severely damaged permanently by the global financial crisis, and a worldwide fiscal stimulus could play an important role in stabilizing the global economy in crisis. EEA's efforts at strengthening regional demand, in conjunction with adopting a more flexible exchange rate regime, will promote more balanced regional growth and facilitate an orderly global rebalancing.

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