Box Office Revenue Forecasting: A System Dynamics Approach

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Executive Summary

System dynamics models offer tremendous potential for use as forecasting tools. The primary advantages offered by systems dynamics-based forecasting models over traditional forecasting methods include the ability to incorporate expert knowledge in the model and the ability to model highly non-linear behavior. With advantages also come drawbacks. Because the model behavior, and resulting forecasts are dependent on expert input, it is all too easy to build a model that has little utility as a forecasting tool. To avoid this scenario, it becomes necessary for the forecaster to extensively validate a given model against historical data.

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