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In the book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, author Nassim Taleb reminds us that human nature places too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat, and does not give credence to the fact that most of the "really important events are rare and unpredictable."1 With the unprecedented and unusual market conditions in the worldwide financial markets, Taleb's thinking appears to be correct. Finance teams in all industries found themselves having to throw out their traditional forecasting and budgeting methodologies over the past three years.
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