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Business Cycle Synchronisation: Disentangling Trade And Financial Linkages

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Executive Summary

Drawing on a large sample of countries, this paper explores whether closer economic ties between countries foster business cycle synchronisation and disentangles the role of the various channels, including trade and financial linkages as well as the similarity in sectoral specialisation. Overall, the results confirm that trade integration fosters business cycle synchronisation. Similar patterns of sectoral specialisation also lead to closer business cycle co-movement. By contrast, it remains difficult to find a direct relationship between bilateral financial linkages and output correlation. However, the results suggest that financial integration affects business cycle synchronisation indirectly by raising the similarity in sectoral specialisation.

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