Business Intelligence

Combining VAR And DSGE Forecast Densities

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Executive Summary

A popular macroeconomic forecasting strategy takes combinations across many models to hedge against instabilities of unknown timing; see (among others) Stock and Watson (2004), Clark and McCracken (2010), and Jore et al. (2010). Existing studies of this forecasting strategy exclude Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models, despite the widespread use of these models by monetary policymakers. In this paper, the authors combine inflation forecast densities utilizing an ensemble system comprising many Vector AutoRegressions (VARs), and a policymaking DSGE model.

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