Business Intelligence

Composite Leading Indicator For The Austrian Economy. Methodology And "Real-time" Performance

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Executive Summary

The aim of this paper was to construct a monthly composite leading indicator for the Austrian economy which shows early signs of cyclical turning points in the Austrian business cycle. So far, the only CLI (Composite Leading Indicator) available for Austria that is designed to provide such signals between expansions and slowdowns of economic activity is the one provided by the OECD. The author has analyzed 91 monthly single indicators, spanning over the period 1988-2008, to select those series which overall fare best in showing a 'Steady' leading behaviour with respect to an underlying reference series. As reference series the author makes use of the time-series real gross value added excluding forestry and agriculture.

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