Leadership

Decision Making Under Uncertain And Risky Situations

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Executive Summary

Decision Making is certainly the most important task of a manager and it is often a very difficult one. The domain of decision analysis models falls between two extreme cases. This depends upon the degree of knowledge we have about the outcome of any actions. One "Pole" on this scale is deterministic. The opposite "Pole" is pure uncertainty. Between these two extremes are problems under risk. The main idea here is that for any given problem, the degree of certainty varies among managers depending upon how much knowledge each one has about the same problem. This reflects the recommendation of a different solution by each person. Probability is an instrument used to measure the likelihood of occurrence for an event.

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