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The sharp rise in government debt in many major economies following the introduction of large fiscal stimulus measures during the global financial crisis of 2008-09 has triggered concerns over its impact on long-term interest rates and the potential negative consequences for future growth and inflation. This paper uses an error-correction model to assess the effect of growing government debt on long-term real interest rates by drawing on empirical evidence from the US. The results show that in the long run, a one-percentage-point increase in the federal debt-to-GDP ratio raises the equilibrium 10-year real US Treasury yield by about six basis points.
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