Data Management

Estimating The Evolution Of Moneys Role In The U.S. Monetary Business Cycle

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Executive Summary

The authors assess the time-varying money's role in the post-WWII U.S. business cycle by estimating a new-Keynesian framework featuring nonseparability in real balances and consumption, portfolio adjustment costs, and a systematic reaction of policymakers to money growth. Rolling-window Bayesian estimations a la Canova (2009) are contrasted to a full sample fixed-coefficient investigation. The results suggest that the assumption of stable parameters is unwarranted. The omission of money may induce biased assessments on the impact of structural shocks to the U.S. macroeconomic aggregates, especially during the great inflation period.

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