Extracting GDP Signals From The Monthly Indicator Of Economic Activity: Evidence From Chilean Real-time Data
With real-time data it is analyzed what information Chile's monthly indicator of economic activity (IMACEC) contains about the final GDP, defined as the growth rate that has been subject to at least two annual revisions. Data are presented and revisions briefly analyzed. It is argued that when three months of IMACEC data are available, it is possible to extract signals about the final GDP, which are as reliable as those contained in the first release of the growth rate. This result is obtained with the evaluation in-sample as well as out-of-sample.