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Fertility Response To The Tax Treatment Of Children

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Executive Summary

One of the most commonly cited studies on the effect of child subsidies on fertility, Whittington, Alm, and Peters (1990), claimed a large positive effect of child tax benefits on fertility using time series methods. The authors revisit this question in light of recent increases in child tax benefits by replicating this earlier study and extending the analysis with an additional 20 years of data. They find that their results suffer from the spurious regression problem, and are not robust to differencing.

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