Big Data

For Better Or For Worse, But How About A Recession?

Date Added: Nov 2010
Format: PDF

In light of the current economic crisis, the authors estimate hazard models of divorce to determine how state and national unemployment rates affect the likelihood of divorce. With 89,340 observations over the 1978-2006 periods for 7633 couples from the 1979 NLSY, they find mixed evidence on whether increases in the unemployment rate lead to overall increases in the likelihood of divorce, which would suggest countercyclical divorce probabilities. The estimates are generally stronger in magnitude when using national instead of state unemployment rates.