Business Intelligence

Getting It Right The First Time: Belief Elicitation With Novice Participants

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Executive Summary

The auction design literature makes clear that theoretically equivalent mechanisms can perform very differently in practice. Though of equal importance, much less is known about the empirical performance of theoretically equivalent mechanisms for belief elicitation. This is especially unfortunate given the increasing interest in eliciting beliefs from respondents in large-scale surveys. These mechanisms are of interest because incentive compatibility does not require strong assumptions such as risk neutrality or expected utility maximization. The findings have substantial practical value to anyone wishing to elicit beliefs from novice respondents, a goal of increasing importance to large-scale survey design.

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