Globalisation Of Natural Gas Markets - Effects On Prices And Trade Patterns

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Executive Summary

The regional natural gas markets are expected to gradually become more integrated. The major driving forces are lower LNG costs, more spot trade, and increased need for imports into the US and other key markets. In this paper the authors examine various scenarios for a future global gas market, particularly focusing on natural gas prices and trade patterns. They use a numerical model of the international energy markets, with detailed modelling of regional gas production and international gas transport. Scenarios with different assumptions about future demand and supply conditions are simulated. The results suggest that trade between continents will grow considerably over the next couple of decades, and that prices in the main import regions will remain around current levels.

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