Growth Of Electoral Fraud In Non-Democracies: The Role Of Uncertainty

Electoral fraud has become an integral part of electoral competition both in established democracies and less-than-democratic regimes. In this paper, the author studies electoral fraud in the non-democratic setting. First, the author presents evidence of fraud sustainability and growth over the lifetime of non-democratic regimes in post-Soviet and Sub-Saharan countries. Second, the author provides a theoretical model that explains the observed tendency of growing fraud. Specifically, in a probabilistic voting model of electoral competition with falsifications, a corrupt incumbent faces two types of uncertainty: uncertainty about voters' attitude towards fraud and uncertainty about his true support, captured by a purely random component in the voters' utility over candidates.

Provided by: Charles University Topic: Big Data Date Added: Oct 2010 Format: PDF

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