Growth Of Electoral Fraud In Non-Democracies: The Role Of Uncertainty
Electoral fraud has become an integral part of electoral competition both in established democracies and less-than-democratic regimes. In this paper, the author studies electoral fraud in the non-democratic setting. First, the author presents evidence of fraud sustainability and growth over the lifetime of non-democratic regimes in post-Soviet and Sub-Saharan countries. Second, the author provides a theoretical model that explains the observed tendency of growing fraud. Specifically, in a probabilistic voting model of electoral competition with falsifications, a corrupt incumbent faces two types of uncertainty: uncertainty about voters' attitude towards fraud and uncertainty about his true support, captured by a purely random component in the voters' utility over candidates.