Business Intelligence

How Well Do Individuals Predict The Selling Prices Of Their Homes?

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Executive Summary

Self-reported home values are widely used as a measure of housing wealth by researchers employing a variety of data sets and studying a number of different individual and household-level decisions. The accuracy of this measure is an open empirical question, and requires some type of market assessment of the values reported. In this paper, the authors examine the predictive power of self-reported housing wealth when estimating housing prices, utilizing the portion of the University of Michigan's Health and Retirement Study covering 1992-2006. They find that homeowners, on average, overestimate the value of their properties by between 5% and 10%.

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