Data Management

Identifying International Business Cycles In Disaggregate Data: Germany, France And Great Britain

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Executive Summary

This paper analyzes international business cycles in Europe 1862-1913 using disaggregated data and Dynamic Factor Analysis. In comparison with estimates of real national product there is more evidence for international business cycles in disaggregated data of Germany, France and Great Britain before World War I. This is because data used to construct historical national accounts are often not sufficient to date business cycles. Especially, general price fluctuations that are used to de ate national accounts in current prices are badly documented. Thus, national products in current prices seem to give a more accurate picture of real business cycle fluctuations than their deflated counterparts.

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