Business Intelligence

Impulse Response Identification In DSGE Models

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Executive Summary

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models have become a widely used tool for policymakers. This paper modifies the global identification theory used for structural vector autoregressions, and applies it to DSGE models. The authors use this theory to check whether a DSGE model structure allows for unique estimates of structural shocks and their dynamic effects. The potential cost of a lack of identification for policy oriented models along that specific dimension is huge, as the same model can generate a number of contrasting yet theoretically and empirically justifiable recommendations. The problem and methodology are illustrated using a simple New Keynesian business cycle model.

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