Business Intelligence

International Commodity Prices, Growth, And The Outbreak Of Civil War In Sub-Saharan Africa

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Executive Summary

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, the authors examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries' main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of the civil wars. The authors also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

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