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The authors present a statistical approach to distributed detection of local latency shifts in networked systems. For this purpose, response delay measurements are performed between neighbouring nodes via probing. The expected probe response delay on each connection is statistically modelled via parameter estimation. Adaptation to drifting delays is accounted for by the use of overlapping models, such that previous models are partially used as input to future models. Based on the symmetric Kullback-Leibler divergence metric, latency shifts can be detected by comparing the estimated parameters of the current and previous models. In order to reduce the number of detection alarms, thresholds for divergence and convergence are used.
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