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Macroeconomic Factors And Micro-Level Bank Risk

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Executive Summary

The interplay between banks and the macroeconomy is of key importance for financial and economic stability. The authors analyze this link using a Factor-Augmented Vector AutoRegressive model (FAVAR) which extends a standard VAR for the U.S. macroeconomy. The model includes GDP growth, inflation, the Federal Funds rate, house price inflation, and a set of factors summarizing conditions in the banking sector. The authors use data of more than 1,500 commercial banks from the U.S. call reports to address the following questions. How are macroeconomic shocks transmitted to bank risk and other banking variables? What are the sources of bank heterogeneity, and what explains differences in individual banks' responses to macroeconomic shocks?

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