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Making The Gambler-s Fallacy Disappear: The Role Of Experience

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Executive Summary

The authors examine the role of experience over time in the emergence in binary prediction tasks. Experiment 1 compares a condition where participants sequentially predict the colored outcomes of a roulette wheel with a condition where the wheel's past outcomes are presented all at once. Subjects are yoked so that the same history of outcomes is observed in both conditions. The results reveals a tendency towards negative regency when outcomes are experienced that disappears when the same outcomes are presented all at once. Experiment 2 examines a boundary condition where outcomes are presented sequentially in an automatic fashion without intervening predictions.

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