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Mccallum Rule And Chinese Monetary Policy

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Executive Summary

This paper evaluates the usefulness of a McCallum monetary policy rule based on money supply for maintaining price stability in mainland China. The authors examine whether excess money relative to rule-based values provides information that improves the forecasting of price developments. The results suggest that their monetary variable helps in predicting both consumer and corporate goods price inflation, but the results for consumer prices depend on the forecasting period. Nevertheless, growth of the Chinese monetary base has tracked the McCallum rule quite closely. Moreover, results using a structural vector autoregression suggest that their measure of excess money supply could be used to identify monetary policy shocks in the Chinese economy.

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