Project Management

Mean Reversion In Profitability For Non-listed Firms

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Executive Summary

The presence of mean reversion in profitability at the firm level is important for valuation and prediction of growth and earnings. The authors investigate the mean reversion in accounting profitability for Norwegian non-listed firms for the period 1988-2006. They find a mean reversion rate of about 0.44. This is higher than found in other studies. They also find that small firms have a higher mean reversion rate than large firms. Previously, price-to-book ratios have been used to investigate changes in profitability over time for listed rms. They examine bankruptcy risk as an alternative variable for unlisted firms. They find that bankruptcy risk may help explain changes in profitability, but the results are not as strong as found in previous work.

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