Modeling Movie Lifecycles and Market Share
The study examines box office sales in the context of a market share model. This is accomplished by developing a combination of a sliding-window logit model and a Gamma diffusion pattern, in a hierarchical Bayes framework. The paper shows that accounting for the full choice set available every week not only increases the fit of weekly movie sales, but also leads to parameter estimates that depict a richer picture of the movie industry. The shows that movie studios appear to have a good understanding of the products they produce, knowing when to support them and when not to.