Modeling Worms Propagation on Probability

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Executive Summary

There are the two common means for propagating worms: scanning vulnerable computers in the network and sending out malicious email attachments. Modeling the propagation of worms can help one understand how worms spread and devise effective defence strategies. Most traditional models simulate the overall scale of infected network in each time tick, making them invalid for examining deep inside the propagation procedure among individual nodes. For this reason, this paper proposes a novel probability matrix to model the propagation mechanism of the two main classes of worms (scanning and email worms) by concentrating on the propagation probability. The objective of this paper is to access the spreading and work out an effective scheme against the worms.

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