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Monetary Policy Analysis And Forecasting In The World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach

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Executive Summary

The practice of monetary policy analysis and forecasting is becoming increasingly informed by structural macroeconometric models. Indeed, leveraging recent advances in theoretical and empirical macroeconomics, the leading central banks have all developed sophisticated models of the monetary transmission mechanisms in their respective economies which serve as inputs into the conduct of monetary policy, as discussed in survey papers by Sims and Tovar (2008). Effective surveillance over the conduct of monetary policy in these economies by the International Monetary Fund demands that it develop comparable quantitative tools.

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