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New Evidence On The First Financial Bubble

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Executive Summary

The first global financial bubble in stock prices occurred 1720 in Paris, London and the Netherlands. Explanations for these linked bubbles primarily focus on the irrationality of investor speculation and the corresponding stock price behavior of two large firms: the South Sea Company in Great Britain and the Mississippi Company in France. In this paper, the authors examine a broad cross-section of security price data to evaluate the causes of the bubbles. Using newly collected stock prices for British and Dutch firms in 1720, they find evidence against indiscriminate irrational exuberance and evidence in favor of speculation about two factors: the Atlantic trade and the incorporation of insurance companies.

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