Data Management

News, Noise, And Fluctuations: An Empirical Exploration

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Executive Summary

The authors explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information; these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. The objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual changes in fundamentals (news) from those due to temporary errors in the private sector's estimates of these fundamentals (noise). Using a simple model where the consumption random walk hypothesis holds exactly, they address some basic methodological issues and take a first pass at the data.

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