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On Graduation From Default, Inflation And Banking Crisis: Elusive Or Illusion?

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Executive Summary

This paper uses a data set of over two hundred years of sovereign debt, banking and inflation crises to explore the question of how long it takes a country to "Graduate" from the typical pattern of serial crisis that most emerging markets experience. The authors find that for default and inflation crises, twenty years is a significant market, but the distribution of recidivism has extremely fat tails. In the case of banking crises, it is unclear whether countries ever graduate.

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