Data Management

On The Change In The Austrian Business Cycle

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Executive Summary

This paper analyzes the change in the Austrian business cycle over time using data back to 1954. The change in the cyclical pattern is captured using a nonlinear univariate structural time series model where the time of the break point is estimated. Results for GDP series suggest a break in the frequency of the cycle and in the parameter covering the variance of the disturbances of the cycle taking place in the mid 70s and early 80s, respectively. Using data for GDP components a break in these variables is found too, but the timing of the break differs among the series.

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