Passenger Car Use And Climate Change: Quantifying The Impacts Of Technological Innovations Needed For Substantial CO2 Emission Reductions

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The purpose of the paper is to model scenarios of technological innovations in the global passenger vehicle fleet, i.e. improvements in the energy economy of average regional vehicle fleets and blending of alternative fuels. This is to quantify the potential CO2 emissions reductions that may stem from enhancing "Business-as-usual technologies" in cars with respect to a set of baseline car stock projections. The paper adopts an international approach quantifying in total 11 world regions, thereby conceptualising regionally distinct growth patterns of average car stocks until 2050. Scenario analysis is used to analyze impacts of alternative futures in car technology, i.e. the adoption of efficiency improvements or the blending of low-carbon biofuels to overcome business-as-usual growth in car-related CO2 emissions.