Predicting Movie Grosses: Winners and Losers, Blockbusters and Sleepers

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Executive Summary

This article examines the question of predicting movie grosses from generally available information. The first version of this question relates to predictions prior to a movie's release, perhaps relatively early in production. How accurately can a studio predict the revenues for a movie before it opens? With some actors receiving as much as $20 million per picture (plus a percentage of the gross revenues), producers obviously feel that star power leads to profit, but is that really true.

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