Predicting Prefix Availability in the Internet

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The Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) maintains inter-domain routing information by announcing and withdrawing IP prefixes, which may result in prefix unreachability. Prefix availability observed from different vantage points in the Internet can be lower than standards promised by Service Level Agreements (SLAs). In this paper, the authors develop a framework for predicting longterm prefix availability, given short-duration prefix information from publicly available BGP routing databases. They compare three prediction models, and find that bagged decision trees perform the best when predicting for long future durations, whereas a simple model works well for short prediction durations.