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The objective of this paper is to derive the channel transition probabilities for the reader-to-tag link in RFID, considering the peculiar receiver structure in a RFID tag. The model is a first necessary step to derive Maximum Likelihood receivers and also the Shannon capacity of the link. The standardization and diffusion of RFID technology has prompted the introduction of various models and simulation platforms that describe its behaviour, see e.g., the popular RFIDsim. Most platforms assume that the tag can be characterized with a simple bit error probability and do not accurately model the tag demodulation and decision process.
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