Business Intelligence

Projecting Global Economic Growth An Information Technology Contribution-Based Approach

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Executive Summary

This paper introduces a framework for projecting economic growth that takes into account the contribution of Information Technology. The author applies this framework to forecast the growth of productivity, GDP, and per capita GDP over the ten-year period 2006- 2016 for 122 economies. Relative to the historical growth observed for the period 1996-2006, the base-case projections of this model are slightly higher for productivity but lower for GDP and GDP per capita growth. In comparison to the World Bank forecasts, the projections are less optimistic for all groups of economies except for Eastern Europe and Sub-Saharan Africa.

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