Projection and Reaction for Decision Support in Refineries: Combining Multiple Theories

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Modern decision support systems are forced to deal with perpetual change in their environment: change that includes a high degree of uncertainty over the current state of the plant, effects of actions, accuracy of sensor readings, and consistency of execution of approved procedures by plant operators. This paper reports on AEGIS (Abnormal Event Guidance and Information System), a large-scale automated system to provide decision support for refinery operations personnel.