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Real-time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature

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Executive Summary

This paper surveys the empirical research on fiscal policy analysis based on real-time data. This paper can be broadly divided in three groups that focus on: the statistical properties of revisions in fiscal data; the political and institutional determinants of fiscal data revisions and of one-year-ahead projection errors by governments and the reaction of fiscal policies to the business cycle. It emerges that, first, fiscal data revisions are large and initial releases are biased estimates of final values. Second, the presence of strong fiscal rules and institutions leads to relatively more accurate releases of fiscal data and small deviations of fiscal outcomes from government plans.

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