Data Management

Simple Fuzzy Score For Russian Public Companies Risk Of Default

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Executive Summary

Current economy crisis of 2008-2009 has resulted in severe credit crunch and significant NPL rise in Russian financial system. Bad debt rate has almost tripled to 6% of total loans to corporate sector, while provisions reached 9%. Corporate bonds market cannot be called safe heaven either having almost 25% of issuers defaulted on their debt. Probably the only good side of it is that the researchers and the banks can now have a better sample to identify and test predictive power of their credit risk models. The number of default cases including public defaults on bonds market is now significantly higher than in previous years.

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