Sovereign Default Risk Assessment From The Bottom-Up
In 2010, the world's focus on the global financial crisis shifted from financial markets and institutions to sovereign debt, especially in Europe. This has motivated a re-examination of techniques and traditional indicators to assess the health of individual countries. Since the potential financial and economic implosion of several European countries seemed to erupt fairly quickly, one might conclude that the existing scholarly and practitioner methods were not adequate. The authors believe that one can learn a great deal about sovereign risk by, in addition to observing traditional macroeconomic measures of performance, to also carefully assess the health and aggregate default risk of a nation's private corporate sector - a type of "Bottom-up" analysis.