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Still Minding The Gap - Inflation Dynamics Duiing Episodes Of Persistent Large Output Gaps

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Executive Summary

This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. The authors find that such episodes generally brought about significant disinflation, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil prices. Indeed, inflation declined by about the same fraction of the initial inflation rate across episodes. That said, disinflation has tended to taper off at very low positive inflation rates, arguably reflecting downward nominal rigidities and well-anchored inflation expectations. Temporary inflation increases during episodes were, in turn, systematically related to currency depreciation or higher oil prices.

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