The Probability Model of Peer-to-Peer Botnet Propagation

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Executive Summary

Active peer-to-peer worms are great threat to the network security since they can propagate in automated ways and flood the Internet within a very short duration. Modeling a propagation process can help one to devise effective strategies against a worm's spread. This paper presents a study on modeling a worm's propagation probability in a P2P overlay network and proposes an optimized patch strategy for defenders. Firstly, the authors present a probability matrix model to construct the propagation of P2P worms. Their model involves three indispensible aspects for propagation: infected state, vulnerability distribution and patch strategy.

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